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From: Vincent Archer (varcherdenyall.com)
Date: Tue Apr 10 2007 - 04:40:20 CDT
On Wed, 2007-04-04 at 15:00 -0400, Valdis.Kletnieksvt.edu wrote:
> I really can't foresee *any* scenario that has Microsoft disappearing in
> under 20 years - except global economic upheaval where the survival of
> Microsoft will be the *least* of our worries....
Beyond economic upheaval, a technological upheaval is far more probable.
Microsoft negociated rather adequately the transition from standalone to
internet technology, but it could have failed. IBM lost their edge
because they failed to negociate in time the transition in the computing
market from the mini/mainframe model to the desktop PC/server. They
survived, but went from the dominant actor of the market to "another guy
who does nice laptops".
Microsoft has a dominant position in the market of the
mouse/keyboard/graphics user interface. If the technology changes
tomorrow, they can lose that position. Once lost, it's hard to get it
back; the new king of the hill doesn't get there by chance. Let's say
that, in ten years, you get the brain-computer DNI (Direct Neural
Interfacing) tech working, making the use of a mouse and a keyboard
about as obsolete as a teletype, and rendering the whole Windows OS
paradigm obsolete... that's where the Microsoft momentum can falter.
That, or major blunders. Microsoft has enough resources to survive most
of anything... but you can survive as the number 2 or 3, or #5 guy on
the market. Survival is not dominance.
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